The ODTR and its quarterly review

This dossier looks closely at the latest Nielsen survey figures – which compare Internet data of countries – and their public misinterpretation in the ODTR's quarterly report.
We are able to show that these data contain a bombshell: they document the devastating failure of “Internet Ireland". Ireland, the wannabe ehub of Europe, the emerging global leader of egovernment and soon to be leading knowledge society (so Bertie says) has not only reached last place, it has reached distinctly last place.
We show how the ODTR, who together with the Ministry for Communication is ultimately responsible for that failure, is trying – and up to now succeeding – to deceive the public and the decision makers about their own incompetence, leading to total failure of their policy.
These are severe accusations and we ask the ODTR and the Ministry of Communications to respond urgently to our findings.

1. Foreword and scope of this dossier

We have doubts about the decency of a lot of this review, which was published on 7/6/2002 as document 2/50 – you can download it from www.odtr.ie/docs/odtr0250.doc.
The picture painted of the situation in Ireland is simply a lie. It is Lewis Carroll country, where words mean the opposite or have lost their meaning entirely. It is "Etain in Wonderland" stuff. Reading the reviews foreword makes your brain go mushy: "Competition has transformed the market in this short period. Other licensed operators share of the fixed line market stands at 21%, commercial DSL services have been launched, cable operators are rolling out digital television services and one third of the population have access to the internet at home."
Where is father Ted to hold up the signs "FANTASY/REALITY"?
This dossier examines exclusively chapter 5. Internet and chapter 2.3 Broadband survey of the ODTR Quarterly Review.

2. The Nielsen survey figures – and their face saving public misinterpretation by the ODTR

The Nielsen terminology

The Nielsen figures – they can be accessed on www.nielsen-netratings.com/hot_off_the_net_i.jsp – for domestic Internet usage in Ireland in June 2002 are:

We have highlighted the ones that are relevant for comparing the Internet success of countries.
Green text: For some – and we don't only think of TD's here – it may be easier to come to grips with these terms and figures by imagining the figures were about cheese consumption.

Current Internet Universe Estimate – it is the least important; it just estimates the number of people who have ever accessed the Internet from home. Useful only as it indicates how many people could currently use the Internet from home. The ODTR review calls this the “Internet penetration rate”.
In cheese terms: how many people have ever tasted cheese in their home.

Active Internet Universe – important figure: how many people do actually use the Internet from home. How many active users a country has (active is defined as having actually used the Internet from home during the last month at least once).
How many people do regularly eat cheese (defined as having eaten cheese at least once during the last month).

Time Spent per Month – important figure: average monthly online time of the active Internet user.
The amount of cheese the average regular cheese eater consumed last month.

Combining the Nielsen figures with the total population figures of a country, in Irelands case 3.91 million, will transform the absolute Nielsen figures into percentage values.

Relating the size of the population with the average online time per user and the active Internet universe will give the all-important Average Online Time per Citizen. This figure allows the most meaningful comparison between the home Internet usage of different countries, just as you would compare wine consumption or television viewing time or whatever of different countries by comparing the average consumption per citizen.
How much cheese has the average citizen consumed last month.


The ODTR only fancies the “Internet penetration rate”
The ODTR review elaborates most of the chapter on “Internet penetration” rates, illustrating them with two charts. “Internet penetration rate” is nothing but the rather meaningless Nielsen figure of the Current Internet Universe Estimate expressed in percent.
Just as it is rather meaningless to deal with the question of cheese consumption of a country by concentrating on the figure of people who have ever tasted cheese.

The first ODTR review chart shows that the “Internet penetration rate” stagnated since last year at 34 %. The ODTR found a more positive wording, it comments: "The Internet penetration rate has stabilized from April 2001 to April 2002.”

The second chart compares the “Internet penetration” rate of different countries. Here it is (from the ODTR review):

The chart shows Ireland on third last place, albeit distinctively above Spain and France.
To deflect from the poor showing of Ireland the review adds the following commentary to the diagram:
"Results from the ODTR's recent consumer survey showed 39% of those who do not have access to Internet at home were not interested in going on line. Perhaps greater awareness of relevant content may increase the numbers accessing the Internet from home."
This is a serious case of red herring, a non-issue, copied unashamedly from the propaganda arsenal of EIRCOM. World and dog know that between 30 and 40 percent of the population of any country under any circumstances will not warm up to the Internet and computer world.
And if the civil servants of the ODTR really think, "Perhaps greater awareness of relevant content may increase the numbers accessing the Internet from home," they might as well pack and leave.


The important figures – not shown by the ODTR
The next Nielsen figures, which are far more important than the above, are not shown as diagrams. On their own and nicely and deceptively worded (has remained… consistent with…), they look inconspicuous enough:

"According to Nielsen's Internet figures (…), the active Internet Universe in Ireland has remained at 16% since our last review. The active Internet universe refers to the number of people who have access to the Internet at home and have used it during the month.
The average home user spent just under 4 hours online in April 2002, consistent with previous reviews."

But it is exactly these Nielsen figures that contain a condemning verdict on the Irish Internet policy makers and regulators. They contain a bombshell. They show that the incumbent EIRCOM's misuse of its monopoly status, with Internet access pricing in multiples of that of other countries, facilitated by (instead of regulated against) the ODTR has been nothing less than an act of national sabotage.

When we look at comparative diagrams of the important Nielsen figures, we can see why the ODTR review did not want to show them.


Comparing the active Internet usage figures
Only less than half of the Irish people who have Internet access from home do actually use the Internet from home (defined as having used it at least once during the last month).

With active Internet usage Ireland is down to the level of the non-English speaking Spain and France (our figure of 14.8 % is based on 3.9 million population in Ireland). And in both Spain and France the active usage is growing and not stagnating, as is the case in Ireland.
We should as well keep in mind that the World Wide Web is a predominantly English language medium, which makes it much harder to adapt to for non-English speaking countries.


Comparing the average user online time
When we compare the times an Internet user is spending online Irelands rating is worse.

Ireland is decisively last with 3hours and 36 minutes, no other country is below 5 hours.
Just to remind of how the ODTR review handles this damning figure: "The average home user spent just under 4 hours online in April 2002, consistent with previous reviews."


Comparing the online time of the average citizen
The most meaningful comparative figure is of course the online time per citizen. That's how all other things – be it cheese consumption or television viewing time – are normally compared.
And when we compare the average monthly online time of the Irish citizen with those of the other countries it's becoming all too clear: Internet Ireland is in a coma.

With 32 minutes average online time per citizen we are closer to the level of the developing world than the developed countries – and that as an English-speaking people.
Who would have guessed that from the ODTR review?

3. Broadband Access – a Survey to deceive the public

Having failed to regulate against EIRCOM’s blockage of ADSL broadband rollout, the ODTR conveniently upgrades the humble and clearly narrowband ISDN to the status of broadband in its review:

"2.3.1 Broadband Access
As illustrated in table 2.1, ISDN and leased lines are the predominant broadband access technologies that companies have at present

Table 2.1: Types of broadband access companies have at present
Broadband Access Present
ISDN 68%
National Leased Lines 53%"

There is one big problem with this information: ISDN just is not broadband.

Broadband is generally defined as always-on, flat rate Internet connections and data communications that are faster than conventional modems or ISDN. Commonly the term is used for connection speeds from 512 k upwards.

And there is a second problem. What about the leased lines? Are we right to assume that most of them are 64k or 128k lines – again clearly narrowband – just sold for outrageous prices?
We consider this chapter of the ODTR review to be a serious and intended misinformation of the public, which is simply not acceptable.

4. Summary

Over the last years the Minister for Communication and the ODTR have completely failed to achieve the universally agreed single most important condition for Internet success: cheap access price. Irelands Internet access pricing is in multiples of that of other countries. EIRCOM the grotesquely over manned former semi state Telco has been allowed to misuse its dominant, de facto monopoly position, to price the Irish citizen out of using the Internet.
The civil servants of the ODTR seem to have no understanding of the mechanics of a market economy and they don't seem to have an understanding of the importance of Internet success for this country. To hide their failure the ODTR has issued a quarterly review that intentionally and shamelessly misinforms the public about the catastrophic consequences of their actions.